Alternate View Analysis
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“What enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge…determine the enemy’s plans and you will know which strategy will be successful and which will not.”
Sun Tzu, The Art of War
Red Team Analysis
Red Teaming models the behavior of individuals or groups by emulating their thought processes in order to anticipate probable adversary actions.
The practice of studying the adversary is as old as warfare itself, yet the notion as it applies to non-military issues is a relatively new practice, especially in academia and industry. Red Cell Analytics represents a framework for understanding the opposing view.
The Red Cell Analytics Lab was established in 2008 by Colonel Jake Graham, retired Colonel of Marines, Penn State Faculty member and Professor of Practice.
In the threat/risk management process, the testing and evaluation of a threat/risk mitigation or incident management strategy is critical. Red Cell Teaming develops new strategies, exposes biases emerging from groupthink; identifies gaps and vulnerabilities that are overlooked because of over-familiarity with the operation and/or security environment, highlights areas for improved inter-organizational cooperation in preparedness, response, and mitigation; and provides recommendations for ensuring unchecked assumptions do not become threats. The value of Red Cell Team assessment of real problems should be a critical part of any security plan or evaluation of operational processes. While Red Cell Teaming benefits from the participation of subject matter experts, innovations often emerge from novice participants who are not blinded by preconceived notions or embedded processes.
The RCAL has conducted Red Cell Analysis for a wide variety of partners including, the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab, the Penn State Police Department, PSU Intercollegiate Athletics, and the Pennsylvania State Police. Several agencies have also collaborated with the RCAL in various levels of funded and unfunded research, including, Deloitte, the Army Research Office, Raytheon, the Potomac Foundation, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, the PSU Office Emergency Management, and the U.S. Army War College.
The Red Cell framework is more than just the application of structured analytic techniques. In order to extrapolate past and current events into a range of possible alternate future states requires critical thinking that stretches beyond the familiar. The product of such analysis can be further explored, evaluated and tested using games, simulations and exercises. Early simulations developed by the United States military after WWII focused on a wide range of national security issues, from understanding the spread of communism to the nuclear strategy of mutual assured destruction (MAD). (Hanley, 1991)
Red Cell Analytics is well suited to the current and emerging threat environment. It puts into practice the knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of the intelligence practitioner—critical thinking, evidence marshaling, indicators and warning, predictive analysis and social network theory. The process requires analysts, working individually and in teams, to examine complex issues in substantial pieces of analysis from multiple perspectives to derive a range of possible outcomes, courses of action or strategies.
Leveraging the inherent capabilities of the digital native—researchers, who have come of age during the proliferation of open source information, the Internet, mobile technologies and social media, further enhances the red cell process. This emerging group of analysts is comfortable with technology; they are masters of “the search engine,” and possess the analytic skills required to envision the future threat. They are comfortable accessing “the hive mind” for collaborative analysis.
The RCAL is developing analysts who can challenge a variety of security problems, including the research of tomorrow’s disruptive technologies and the ever-expanding social phenomena. The threat spectrum is wide; from threats to individuals – to national security—the application of red cell techniques can help to uncover potential threats and aid in the development of mitigating strategies.
We continue to seek new problems, new partnerships and new collaborations. Consider partnering with RCAL. Send us your problems, support our research, consider sponsoring in-house internships and you may just find your future CEO along the way.
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